It is looking pretty grim like.

Yup, time to get the bike out (again)...

06z GFS ensembles. We need to talk about the orange line!





Edited 1 times. Last edit at 14.42hrs Wed 20 Feb 19 by alan.

Attachments: MT8_Aberdeen_ens-2019.02.20.06.png (27kB)  

Enlighten us what is the orange line?

The transition starts with a stonking high on top of us, with exceptional thickness values - this would be a notably hot scenario in height of summer an oh if it was July chart! The high pressure and associated geopotential heights then begin to shift to our NW - eventually the floodgates open.

Mid latitude blocking can often switch abruptly to Northern blocking which is more common in the spring, there are a couple of other members in the ensemble that start the change, but then it all topples back SE and the heights rebound over South Eastern England yet again.





Strong warm air advection around the Western flank of the high reinforces it and causes it to build NW.











Edited 5 times. Last edit at 14.59hrs Wed 20 Feb 19 by alan.

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The Europe GFS page [meteolo.com] has tantalisingly shown snow about 12-14 days into the run for the last few days, yet up to now it's never actually got any nearer in reality.

The ensembles show ~20 different model runs, all with different results and becoming less reliable the further away they are.

So the orange line is a run which shows the potential for cold weather (-10deg at ~1500m) and some precipitation, but there are other runs showing the complete opposite, though the trend looks to be for generally lower temps



Edited 1 times. Last edit at 17.55hrs Wed 20 Feb 19 by geoffers.

I hope the chart Alan has posted will bear fruit and so far its been an incredibly frustrating season from a snow perspective view, Its not just Scotland is suffering in the very unusual warmth for the time of the year.


The Alps is also suffering in very mild temps, Hopefully for Scotland March will cool down with lots of snow to come.

Aboyne currently at 18.3°c! Previous record Scottish Feb temperature record high was set in Aberdeen on 22nd Feb 1897.







Edited 1 times. Last edit at 14.16hrs Thu 21 Feb 19 by alan.

Attachments: oldrecord.png (43kB)   newrecord.gif (78kB)  

Oh and 10 days later:





Edited 1 times. Last edit at 14.25hrs Thu 21 Feb 19 by alan.

Attachments: NOAA_1_1897030418_1.png (42kB)  

Pure baltic for brexit, I'll have lettuce for ten quid a pop if yous want any...

Hmmm compare and contrast:


^10 days after the 1897 record was set in Aberdeen (which fell yesterday).


^Now look what the GFS is throwing up for the same date this year!


^850hpa temperatures don't look hugely low, but the Geopotential heights are very low - so around -3 to 4°c at Munro Level across the Highlands. Big blizzard potential!

Will it stick around into the more reliable short range time frame. There has been a cluster of impressive runs one each ensemble set over the past few days and there is clearly a downward temperature trend once meteorological spring starts!




Edited 1 times. Last edit at 13.55hrs Fri 22 Feb 19 by alan.

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Stunning timing of me to book first family ski holiday to Scotland 24 Feb to 3 March. I know highlands are always a risk but come on ...

Probably starting dumping in March but the beaches up the west coast are worth a rattle when the suns oot....

Whilst not ideal, we are just back from 1/2 term in fort William. We intended to ski but obviously didn't.
We still had a great time, and the kids loved it.
See it as an opportunity to walk some hills, drink some whiskey and eat good food.
The snow will be back!