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James Maunder


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2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 15.06hrs on Tue 25 Feb 03
OK, so the 2003 season is looking pretty dicey. Aongwith the less than ideal seasons of 2002 and 2000 the recent track record is not good.

But how does this compare with patterns over the last 10 or 20 years? Are there any figures available, on snow depth or days of snow cover for example, which give some indication of whether this is part of a gradual decline of the Scottish skiing season or whether there is a cyclical pattern in operation (which might gove some hope for 2004, 2005 and beyond)?

I'm not looking to reopen the discussions elsewhere regarding North Atlantic Oscellations and the Gulf Stream, rather I'm looking for the historical perspective in which to view the current season.

Does anyone have any data sources which might shed some light?
James Maunder


Guest
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 17.16hrs on Tue 25 Feb 03
To answer my own question visit [www.scotland.gov.uk]

Hardly makes entertaining reading!
helen rennie


Posts: 2150
Joined: Dec 2002
Last Visited: 18:38
2nd Sep 2019
What's this?What's this?What's this?
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 20.02hrs on Tue 25 Feb 03
Interesting site but I am puzzled. One of the graphs refers to the West Wall T bar. It displays the number of snow cover days during the 80's and early 90's. I didn't ski much during those years, but I cannot remember a T bar on the West Wall. Its always been a poma in my memory. Can anyone shed light on this?
David Goldsmith


Posts: 1283
Joined: Feb 2003
Last Visited: 08:28
6th Nov 2018
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 23.57hrs on Tue 25 Feb 03
I believe you're right, Helen. When I instructed on Cairngorm 1974 - 76 there was just the 2-stage Ciste Chair up the West Wall. Then they built the Poma very soon afterwards. I do have very vivid memories of my BASI training on the West Wall in May '75, when it had stacks of snow following the big westerly blizzards we enjoyed that winter. My impression now (at arms' length in London) is that the westerlies all too often bring rain, even in January.
Since westerlies are the prevailing winds, presumably that extra warmth is the key reason for the snow failing these days, but I'm sure someone can provide a more expert view.
Alan


Guest
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 00.34hrs on Wed 26 Feb 03
Damn it! I posted a fairly lengthy post around 7pm and it's gone, strange!! As regards the west wall, the west wall poma opened in 1985. There was never a T-Bar that is an error on that graph.

I'm battling with some new hardware so dont have time to redo the vanished post, but if you carried on the M1 and Lady graphs to now, the M1 would bottom out and pick up again, while the lady one would it the floor. While this in part maybe due to the extened M1 Poma having become one of the most important lifts on the mountain rather than a fairly minor one before, it may also have something to do with the small difference in height, thus these graphs are a good reason to create additional load points on the Lady Tow.

As regards climate change, if it's cyclical we should see improvements this decade due to the switch in the NAO into it's mostly negative decadal cycle, which it was in during the 70's and much of the 80's. If things on average stay very poor or worsen during the rest of this decade then we can really start to worry.
SkiBeard


Posts: 354
Joined: Feb 2003
Last Visited: 09:13
5th Oct 2006
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 10.38hrs on Wed 26 Feb 03
My non-scientific/purely subjective feelings on 2003 (thus far) is that just a few very warm days did nearly all the damage. If temperatures had kept low after that fall about three weeks ago snow cover/depth would have been much better. I noticed that most of the snow from that fall which fell in our garden disappeared during one day but that which remained has now been thawing for three weeks at a snails pace. It was the same (even worse) with that ridiculous “17 degree in Aboyne ” day that wiped out so much snow. If these couple of days had not happened I think the 2003 season would have been very different. Hopefully this sort of weather will stay in the Azores next season, where it belongs, then things might look a bit better!
Mark Pickles


Guest
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 16.54hrs on Wed 26 Feb 03
I agree with SkiBeards thinking entirely. I was up at Glenshee last week and I was quite suprised on the drive up just how much snow was still lying at quite low levels.
We just need more luck with the weather after a dump.
James Maunder


Guest
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 10.07hrs on Thu 27 Feb 03
It also seems to be the case that there has been a lot of cold weather this winter - it's just been frustratingly dry!
Some frustrated skier


Guest
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 20.00hrs on Thu 27 Feb 03
Does anyone have a clue why the M1 poma and the fiacaill poma closed as the FRP was supposed to open on monday.
Andrew Hetherington


Guest
Re: 2003 in perspective
Date Posted: 23.49hrs on Fri 28 Feb 03
A response to David G's post.

Both David and James raise interesting points regarding how the UK's winter weather appears to have changed over the last 30 years.

After seasons like this one, 2002 and 2000 it is certainly tempting to think that winters in the past were much colder. But 'the past' needs defintion.

Records show that the 1940's 1950's and 1960's were very much snowier decades than the early 1970's but there was a run of mild winters in the 1920's and 1930's. The colder winters of the 40's, 50's and 60's were due to a marked decrease of Atlantic influence on our weather, compared with earlier decades in the century. But alas in recent decades the Atlantic influence has predominantly made a comeback and at present there is no way of telling whether the trend is temporary or likely to be longer lasting.

I would tend to disagree with the suggestion that westerlies now are more likely to bring rain, when, in the 1970's the same patterns would have brought snow. Remember that 'westerlies' can have widely varying origins. It is the source region of the airmass that fixes its properties and NOT the direction from which it finally approaches the UK. Air masses arriving at our shores from the West could be Polar Maritime, Tropical Maritime or Polar Maritime Returning! Take a look at the archive of historic data on The Weather Outlook site and in particular take a look at the charts of the later part of the winter leading upto May 1975, the example to which David refers. It is clear that Polar Maritime air (which arrived from the west) was frequent during that winter. Likewise, many examples can be found of months when tropical maritime air covered the UK which would not bring snow now and would not have brought snow 50 years ago!

The great variation in severity of winters over the last century shows that there is more to climate change than simply 'global warming', but if warming does occur then we in the UK are likely to experience tropical maritime air more often. This is because a steeper temperature gradient near the tropics will strengthen the sub-tropical jet and push the polar front further to the north...not good news but as with all climate models, it is a 'scenario', not a 'prediction'!
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