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moffatross


Posts: 1525
Joined: Mar 2006
Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 10.30hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
In the high mountains, it's been exceptionally snowy and we might even end up looking back on it as being record breaking in due course. It'll be interesting to hear Adam Watson's view but the anecdotal observation from Hamish MacInnes about this winter's snow line demarcation is very telling ...

[www.bbc.co.uk]

"The first time I went climbing was in 1945 and I remember cutting our way through snow in Glencoe. I've not seen anything like it until now.

This covering of snow we have just now is very alpine. There is a very defined demarcation line between where the snow starts and the bare grass below."


But for the 99% of people who can't see ground above 2,000 feet, in England, Wales and much of lowland Scotland, it's just appeared to be an exceptionally wet one, record breakingly so in fact ...

[metofficenews.wordpress.com]

Simultaneously, the same folk have ended up believing that it's been an exceptionally warm winter too, mostly because there's been next to no snow in the towns and cities. In reality, it's been just a bit milder than average (the CET records show this was mostly on account of early December), but the constant night-time cloudiness has prevented the consistently quite cold upper air which has been responsible for our mountain snowfalls bringing any night time, clear air frosts that freeze puddles and ice windscreens.

Depressingly, the collective mood of the weather forums got so gloomily entrenched discussing how mild and wet our winter was that every topic deteriorated to become a more or less identical moan. Perversely enough, the group think at one forum actually became so hostile to reminders that this winter was alive and very well above 2,000 feet in Scotland, that after many years posting, I've given up with it.

So now that we're nearly at the end of winter 2013/2014 meteorologically speaking, and while we obviously still have another couple of months before Spring arrives in the mountains, it's obvious that it's already been one of the snowiest in living memory even without whatever the lambing storms may bring us in March and April.

And what's made it so unusual is that the jet stream's direction which has been pointing mostly through the centre of Britain since the middle of December has made hardly any deviation from its full on westerly mode. It has produced immense amounts of snow for the northern mountains without any need for 'blocking' high pressure systems to pull in northerlies or easterlies.

Contemporary climatalogical thinking also holds that while exceptions will crop up from time to time due to periods of high pressure blocking, increasingly snowy mountain winters in our latitudes cannot be reconciled with increasing global average temperatures.

[www.scotsman.com]

This thinking would have had you believe that because of its prevailing synoptics, winter 2013/2014 should never have become a good mountain snow exception candidate but should instead have been expected to be a run-of-the-mill candidate for a poor mountain snow winter in a warmer world. So while most sane people would agree that underlying warming continues on a global scale, in my mind there's more grounds than ever for a rethink on how our own mountain climate will be affected by it and that winter 2013/2014 should be very reassuring evidence for the future of Scottish skiing.
Andy


Posts: 1406
Joined: Jan 2003
Last Visited: 08:47
2nd May 2019
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 11.19hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
it's been a good year (so far) for snow on the hills and i've had a good few days out with lots more to come. One thing which has a annoyed me (apart from the southerners on TWO forum!) is the lack of clear days. Hopefully spring will deliver!.

Scomuir


Posts: 300
Joined: Sep 2004
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 11.50hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
It's been a frustrating one to judge conditions. These constant mild temperatures with minor cold blips have thrown me right out when deciding whether to put the studded tyres on my bike or not. I've changed them sometimes more than once a week, as it gets a bit annoying sounding like a tank as you roll through town, and it's 5 or 6 degrees. I think there's only been 3 days where it's been icy enough to justify them, and one of those days I wasn't expecting it, so the smooth tyres were on.

The skiing's not been bad though smiling smiley
telemarker


Posts: 2934
Joined: Oct 2003
Last Visited: 14:59
12th Apr 2021
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 12.14hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
there is lots of snow, but i have been out in the hills less due to the poor overhead conditions - frequenty high winds or poor viz or both
i must be becoming a fair weather skiier, but ski touring in fog and gale isnt that much fun these days
Andy


Posts: 1406
Joined: Jan 2003
Last Visited: 08:47
2nd May 2019
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 12.20hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
aye, i've only managed 2 days out touring but only short days. I don't like touring in fog these days, esp when i go out a lot on my own.
Chionophile


Posts: 692
Joined: Jan 2009
Last Visited: 22:07
24th Jan 2016
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 12.31hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
In response to Moffatross's query, I have never seen so much snow above 2000 feet in January and February, back to 1943. What is also exceptional in my experience is the extreme contrast with very few days of snow-lie or frost on lowland. In the past, snowy winters on lowland were associated with much snow-lie on the hills, e.g. 1947, 1951, 1955, 1958, 1963, 1972, 1977, 1984, and winters with little snow or frost on lowland were associated with little snow on the hills and low skier numbers, e.g. 1954, 1957, 1961, 1964, 1989, 2003. Of course we still have March and later to come, and the snowiest I have ever seen in the Highland high glens and hills in spring was in late April 1951, following heavy snowfalls in March, April and continuing into May, after starting at the end of October and carrying on every month to March and beyond. The snowiest I have ever seen on the high plateaux of the Cairngorms was in late June 1977, following heavy snowfalls in May and June. So, much could still change, or add to what is there, depending on whether the Jetstream stays in its recent position or whether it changes greatly. Remember the heat wave of March 2012, which stripped the hills of winter snow and started plant growth on alpine ground earlier than I have seen since I started recording it in 1951. Spring 2014 and early summer 2014 may yet turn out to be exceptional for snow-cover and depth, and later for snow patches in late summer and autumn, but much will depend on whether the current weather pattern continues for weeks or months or not.
Doug_Bryce


Posts: 1373
Joined: Jan 2003
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 13.29hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
Yip : 2014 has certainly been an unusual winter. Constant westerly weather systems resulting in masses of snow (and wind!) above 2000ft but hardly any frost at low levels.

2010 was also very unusual, but for different reasons. A blocking Atlantic high allowed cold easterly weather to be sucked in across Scotland for weeks on end.
The typical weather patterns from 2008-2014 do seem to indicate some kind of shift in the Jet Stream? The results can be seen in unusual weather all over Europe.

The obvious question is what is driving this? Natural variation?
Or perhaps melting arctic ice cooling the Atlantic ocean?
Climate change (assuming it is happening) may not have the effects we expect.

Timberline


Posts: 491
Joined: Apr 2010
Last Visited: 20:54
24th Feb 2021
What's this?What's this?What's this?
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 15.09hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
And from one who spends most of his ski days below 2000ft, on the Clashindarroch ski trails, there have only been about half a dozen days this season when there has been sufficient snow for good skiing. In most winters there would have been 30-40 "good" days by now, with some more to come. The reason, of course, for this season's poor performance so far is the run of southwesterly weather (which is the least good direction for Clashindarroch) and the fact that the freezing level has been hovering just out of reach almost all the time. In contrast the 2012/13 winter was the second best in the 11 years I've been recording the conditions there, which just goes to show the extreme variability of our winters.
jabuzzard


Posts: 885
Joined: Jan 2010
Last Visited: 11:02
16th Apr 2021
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 15.17hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
What drives the climate is the transport of heat from the equator to the poles. My understanding is that this is a fairly recent "discovery".

In recent times the temperature in the Arctic has warmed much more than elsewhere. This will inevitably lead to a change in the climate.

Is the climate changing? Absolutely and indisputably, anyone claiming otherwise is ignorant of the facts or in denial. The only question up for debate is whether it is caused by humans or not. Here the evidence is overwhelmingly that it is. the evidence is not perfect but you would be a fool to ignore it and carry on as usual.
moffatross


Posts: 1525
Joined: Mar 2006
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 16.20hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
Thanks for that Adam. smiling smiley Your observation that the snow amounts this winter seem exceptional in your recollection is confirmation enough that it's been an unusual one and your observation too that the contrast between the number of snowfalls from lowland to highland has never been so stark really underlines the bizarre nature of the winter.

As for reasons why, Doug's point about possible cooling Atlantic as being influential certainly has some grounds in the observed anomaly charts but whether those anomalies might be a consequence of a melting Arctic is harder to know.

[www.ospo.noaa.gov]

[www.ospo.noaa.gov]

jabuzzard Wrote:Is the climate changing? Absolutely and indisputably, anyone claiming otherwise is ignorant of the facts or in denial. The only question up for debate is whether it is caused by humans or not. Here the evidence is overwhelmingly that it is. the evidence is not perfect but you would be a fool to ignore it and carry on as usual.


Probably best to address the thread before commenting, jarbazzard otherwise it just seems like you're having a pointless rant. More importantly though, you're also wrong about what question is up for debate.
oldagedpredator


Posts: 635
Joined: Mar 2006
Last Visited: 18:17
19th Feb 2021
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 17.06hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
In the Pennines it's been a fairly awful winter nearly everything has come through later, shorter, less than and milder than predicted. Most things that go on get rained off within hours at worst or days at best. Not sure if we'll be up for more than the odd baseless day for the rest of the season. It's all gone a bit 90s again. Way too much bouncing about.

Looking at the Lake District fells it seems to be the same thing. The Helvellyn microclimate and a heck of a lot of blow in appear to have been the saving grace for Raise.

In Scotland it looks to me that although the freezing levels / snow levels have remained at higher altitudes they have been relatively constant. Or when they have risen they have rapidly returned. This week's late running half term hosing hairdryer being the major exception. Atleast the amount of snow already laid down meant it wasn't a season killer.

Must be on some form of record for snow cover vs operating days or visitor numbers. Be nice to get into a cool sunny spring with the odd refreshing snow shower, although I suspect this is too bigger step from the current weather patterns to be realistic.


GlensheeMike


Posts: 38
Joined: Jan 2010
Last Visited: 19:13
15th Mar 2019
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 17.17hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
Jabuzzard, I think the critical questions include *how* is the climate changing in particular places (from this forum's perspective, here in Scotland); and what can we do about it, both in terms of reducing carbon and methane emissions and in terms of ameliorating the effects/ planning for a changing future. The Somerset levels have warning of the last.
firefly


Posts: 2149
Joined: May 2006
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 17.25hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
Hamish MacInnes's comment about the alpine nature of the snow is very interesting. That has also struck me. If you look at some of the terrain below 2000 ft you'd scarcely believe what lay just 500ft+ farther uphill. It really does go to show that the difference between an excellent ski season and a poor one can be measured in a mean temperature differential at 3000ft of a degree or so (and the direction of the wind, obviously).

Chionophile wisely counsels a bit of caution with regards the remainder of the season. Just because there is a massive amount of snow around just now does not necessarily mean it's going to be a vintage season (at least for snow-patches). Another March like we had a couple of years ago could wipe out much of the gains seen. If we get an 'average' couple of months leading into late April then I think we'll be well placed to expect 2014 to be on a par with some of the big years of days past. Much still can happen!
glenogle


Posts: 486
Joined: Feb 2008
Last Visited: 23:25
1st Jun 2018
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 17.26hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
It has been a rubbish winter with only 1 day of lying snow down here.

I put the whole thing down to natural variation/weather cycles. Although there is no denying that humans cause changes to these patterns (butterfly effect)
If i am correct the year after next will be the one where there is more widespread lowland snow.

The historic stuff i looked at (mostly relating to low number hurricane seasons) suggested that this winter would likely be relatively mild, but as goes to show, this does not mean that the hills will be mild or dry.

Hopefully things settle down to allow us to have a cracking spring skiing in the warmth and sunshine.


saints11


Posts: 16
Joined: Oct 2012
Last Visited: 14:45
24th Jul 2014
Re: Perceptions of winter 2013/2014 ...
Date Posted: 19.16hrs on Wed 26 Feb 14
Reiterate what I said in snow patch thread. The lack of frost and unfrozen ground before the snow will make it interesting to see if that has any effect to how quickly it goes. The main thing for me has been how the freezing level has remained pretty constant around 2000ft mark for last couple of months. Almost no variation apart from last week. Next week or two looks cool and unsettled with more snow above about 1500ft so if we come to end March with more accumulation then some huge wreaths could lay well into late summer.
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