Hipennine Wrote:
However, with the caveat that this Lancet article is dated beginning of September, before the "more infectious" variant now in circulation. I have yet to see any scientific analysis of why the new variant is so infectious - it could be because it is now more viable on surfaces.
The following explanation is "simplified" for those without any biochemistry knowledge. As such it glosses over some of the finer detail and might be considered "incorrect" but it does the job for the explanation.
The changes in the "more infectious" variant that are believed to be significant are to the spike protein. These are highly unlikely to make the virus more resistance to degrading to an nonviable state. As such picking it up from a drag lift is still highly unlikely.
On the other hand the mutations are similar to what is seen on other virus spike proteins and are believed to make the protein more fat soluble. This is important because you cell membranes are basically films of fat molecules. If the spike proteins are more soluble in fat then it is easier for them to "merge" with your cell membrane and discharge the viral RNA into the cell.
If the chances of a SARS-CoV-2 virus being able to merge into the cell membrane go up then the chance of it infecting someone go up. Note this is where talk of viral load comes into play. An individual virus particle only has a fairly low chance of causing an infection. Consequently if you get a big dose by being in an enclosed indoor space with poor ventilation you are more likely to get infected. Similarly if you make the virus more infectious the viral load required on average to get an infection goes down. It's what physicists call "statistical mechanics". Further note much of the modelling of the virus spread is being done by physicists because they are really good at statistical mechanical modelling.
Consequently picking it up in a cable car or telecabine is much more likely now.
Final note as I understand it the changes in the spike protein are not at the sites where it is believed the antibodies bind. As such the vaccines are still likely to give good protection against an infection. However this is early days, the new variant has only been on the radar for active research for less than a month and the Christmas break will have impacted on that research.