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Doug Bryce


Posts: 1373
Joined: Jan 2003
Blame El Nino ?
Date Posted: 17.01hrs on Mon 13 Jan 03
I think perhaps El Nino could be to blame for the current state of the winter season. The last El Nino year (1997) was one of the worst scottish seasons I can remember - and this winter seems to be going the same way......

Does anyone know what previous El Nino years have been like in Scotland ? From what I have read El Nino is a Pacific Ocean phenomen, however it has a knock on effect in the Atlantic Ocean that would scottish weather.

From what I remember 97 was exceptionally bad - indeed in the middle of February the hills were almost completly brown. I think March was maybe OK for a couple of weeks, though it didnt last very long ?

Hopefully I am wrong - heres to loads of snow coming next week :-)

Doug.
Alan Mackay


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 17:02
27th Mar 2024
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Re: Blame El Nino ?
Date Posted: 17.42hrs on Mon 13 Jan 03
The knock on impacts ot El Nino on climate closer to the UK is not that well understood, though some impact it is difficult to say that the peak of El Nino and a bad season in 97 was not just coincidence. 1998 was far worse remember!

Anyway, the current El Nino is fairly weak and now almost over, so any negative effect it had should be lessening. More importantly is that the North Atlantic Osscilation has over the last couple of years been moving from it's mostly postive phase to the mostly negative phase of it's decadal cycle. This showed up with the amount of blocking of that Atlantic weather systems that brought us a bumper season in 2001, however it went pair shaped in 2002. This may have in part been due to an unusual double peak in solar activity which should now be indecline for the next 6years.

As for this season there has been plenty of "blocking" both to the North and the East, witness to this was October's dump, unfortunately we've seen some reasonable cold, but just not the snow so far. There is a risk though with the NAO being negative that we get stuck in South winds and very mild air if the blocking highs that block the Atlantic are in the wrong place, as happened last year.

However on the whole, the odds are in favour that things should be on an improving trend for the next few years at least. Historocally the NAO cold phase cycle lasts longer than the warm phase!! I am reasonably optimistic that we'll see seasons like 2001 again in the next few years, and I think we're due an October to June season soon!

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Andy


Posts: 1406
Joined: Jan 2003
Last Visited: 08:47
2nd May 2019
Re: Blame El Nino ?
Date Posted: 15.48hrs on Tue 14 Jan 03
I just read a forecast for the NAO for winter 02/03. It states that the NAO will be 0.9 above average. I think that means it will be positive which in turn means we're in for a mild wet winter dominated by westerlies. I hope they're wrong!
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Re: Blame El Nino ?
Date Posted: 16.47hrs on Tue 14 Jan 03
The NAO has been pretty much negative or neutral since early October, the general trend appears to me much the same, it may be above the long term average, but what matters is it looks like being fairly neutral to slightly negative, with high pressure streaching from the azores to Greenland taking shape in the Atlantic next week... Fingers crossed, if correct we will see a complete block of the Atlantic weather systems, and our weather will come from the North! :-)

Probably 60/40 in favour at present, close call though! Watch the forecasts closely!!
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