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alan


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 17:02
27th Mar 2024
What's this?What's this?What's this?
15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
visit www.weatheroutlook.com!!

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mipsteiner


Guest
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
I'll settle for one at the moment...
Bruce


Guest
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
Wow, I can't believe we're gonna get polar bears grazing in our gardens.
some frustrated skier


Posts: 236
Joined: Mar 2003
Last Visited: 21:55
16th Feb 2021
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
Lets hope this weather outlook helps scottish skiing.
Simon Donald


Guest
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
Well I'll wait and see.

Certainly over here (New Zealand) winter doesn't seem to keen to end. It's snowing heavily at most of the SI ski fields at the moment and temps are forecast to drop a bit over the weekend with more snow. Just hope it clears by sunday coz I'm off to Wanaka skiing.
andrewb268


Guest
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
If i remeber correctly is this the same weatherouthook.com which forecasted a snowy winter last year?

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alan


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 17:02
27th Mar 2024
What's this?What's this?What's this?
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
Long range forecasts for the last winter, largely suggested a predominantly blocked Atlantic with about average snowfalls. For the southern parts of the UK actually got what could be considered average amount of snowfalls, and on the wider scale, as was the case in 2001 blocking highs dominated the weather over the UK.

The basic trends were accurately forecast, but the difference in synopitic patterns of 2001 and 2003 are very small, but that small difference made the difference between one of the best and one of the worst seasons on record. In 2003 the highs sat just that little bit further east, giving Highland Scotland almost months of unbroken winter sunshine, and the driest January, February and March on record.

What the weatheroutlook did suggest was that we were possibly going to see the start of a significant pattern change last winter, and this is now looking to be the case, with blocking highs dominating the summer, and the UK seeing 100f for the first time. If these patterns continue to be the dominant weather set-up for the next few years, we can probably expect a mix of 2001 and 2003 type seasons, though its likely both these seasons were at opposite ends of the extremes we can expect.

The set up currently being forecast for mid to late next week by the GFS model, would be classic winter set-up, though at a week its too far out for much confidence in short range models, if it was to come off even in early October we could see potentially significant snowfalls! The glimour of hope, is that the GFS model has now been showing this set up for some days, which gives increasing confidence in the forecast. Fingers crossed.

BTW early snowfalls in October do not correspond to dire seasons! The stats dont back that up, some have been some have not been!

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alan


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 17:02
27th Mar 2024
What's this?What's this?What's this?
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
A PS to my last post.

CairnGorm and the Lecht esp had a few days of excellent sport late January after a heavy fall, almost 18inches of snow fell in Inverness!! Best skiing on the mountain was reported in the Aonach Bowl and on the Daylodge Poma, most ppl probably assume it never saw action at all last winter.

The along came the warmest 48hrs ever recorded in Winter, I think abyone hit 21°c, those two days stripped almost all the fresh powdery snow from all elevations. That 48hr period made the difference between 2003 going down as a Gorm classic, and the worst on record.

The weather then returned to cold, frosty and sunny. The Loch at Lochanhully was entirely frozen for the remainder of January and the whole of Feb, and parts of March. Even at low levels the snow that survived the record breaking warmth of that 48h period, was still around 4-5weeks later, this is an indication that if that if not for that mild period, there would still have been deep snow at low levels persisting throughout Feb, let alone on the mountains. Snow piled up in Tescos carpark in Inverness during the snowstorm, was still there weeks later!

Really we were very very unlucky last winter. Imagine how could it would have been if we had that unbroken sunshine of Feb, with every lift going on the Gorm? We wouldnt have been talking about how wrong the long range forecasts were then!!

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Simon Donald


Guest
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
That is very true, but the only snow that fell between the end of January and the start of March was about a couple of inches the week after the record temps. So it still wouldn't have been a great (or even good) season, better no doubt, but hardly as good as 2000-1 (we must have had metres of snow fall that winter!!!)
Boarder


Guest
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
Not sure this setup will come off next week. Looks like charts have changed a bit. Or am i looking at charts wrong?! im only a novice!
alan


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 17:02
27th Mar 2024
What's this?What's this?What's this?
Re: 15 yrs of .........
Date Posted: 10.20hrs on Sat 1 Nov 03
Still looking promising for next weekend, but not so good for the following week, charts are only seeing subtle changes, but the high going a bit further east now, will keep the low pressure areas just a bit too far north, for the cold air to reach us.

Small differences in the location of blocking highs, can make a very big difference in the weather conditions we experience. We could well be on for a rollercoaster ride....

The best response is too keep an eye on the reports, and be flexiable, when conditions are good, be prepared to move quick! To help with this Winterhighland will be re-introducing it's email reports.

The reports will be issued on Thursday evening or Friday morning depending on prevailing conditions with an outlook for the weekend, and also snow alerts when something good happens! Watch the GS page for registeration details, and sign up straight away to make sure you don't miss the start of the season!

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