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Andrew b


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Long range forecasts
Date Posted: 15.39hrs on Thu 23 Jan 03
on the front page you say that there are long range forecasts which tell of large amounts of snow in the next few weeks or so. Is it possible for the general public to see them?
Winterhighland


Guest
Re: Long range forecasts
Date Posted: 18.30hrs on Thu 23 Jan 03
This info comes from many varied sources, but some of the peoples who's forecasts i refer to often post things on the Weather Outlook.

See the forums at www.theweatheroutlook.com .

Don't look at the Met Office Monthly outlook it will just depress you, and it's been pretty rubbish recently and I for one hope it's rubbish for feb too!

In terns of medium term trends, beyond the two day mountain forecasts that are available online, I look at other much more basic forecasts for general areas around the mountains, plus the computer generated model charts that come from various NWP systems. Links to them can be fount on TWO. They can only be relied on beyond a few days if they dont change that much from one forecast set to the next, and if there's a general agreement between different models, then the weather predicited is more likely to happen. In short if the GFS (Global Forecasting System) charts suggest heavy snow at 240hrs out, its unlikely to happen! But they can give indications of possible trends. Use with caution!!

Or try www.wetterzentrele.de if you can speak german!

Alan M
Essan


Guest
Re: Long range forecasts
Date Posted: 11.01hrs on Fri 24 Jan 03
And the current charts are looking very good for the end of next week! Although still a week away there is good consistency between individual models and runs so confidence is currently high that it'll turn a lot colder next week with some good snowfall in all upland areas, not just the 'Gorms!

Hopefully next weekend can make up for the disappointment that this weekend looks likely to bring...

[%sig%]
Andy


Guest
Re: Long range forecasts
Date Posted: 12.17hrs on Fri 24 Jan 03
Bill giles does a monthly outlook on the BBC website. This is updated every week and although not very accurate for the mountains, it does suggest that mid feb should see particularly wintry conditions....lets bloody hope so !
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